Scientists in at the University of Tokyo believe that Tokyo has a 75% chance of a magnitude 7.0 (or greater) earthquake in the next four years. They have based the prediction on the four fold increase in tremors since the 11 March 2011 earthquake. Tokyo has not had a major earthquake since 1923 when a 7.9 earthquake hit. The government believe the chances of a major quake are much lower at only 70% in the next 30 years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/16681136
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